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Lawrence H. Putnam
President, Quantitative Software Management, Inc. |
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| What is Going to Happen in Metrics in the Next Ten Years |
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"I have been in the software metrics business for more than 30 years, most of it trying to educate and convince people to use intelligently software metrics for up-front estimating, control of on-going projects, and benchmarking development groups for productivity improvement purposes. What’s the result? Very slow progress. Only a small number of serious adapters. Why? Good systems and methods are out there from a number of vendors, yet organizations rely on very simplistic rules of thumb and erroneous metrics and algorithms handed down year after year with little validation.
I have found that schedule is the most important and most sensitive parameter in the estimating relationship and it is coupled with effort in a multiplicative, non-linear way. So, unless this fact is taken into account in the estimating/planning process, the result will almost always be wrong and project disaster will be pre-ordained.
Another reason: Fear of Measurement. Many immature organizations don’t really want to know how long it is going to take and how much it is going to cost. If the truth comes out at estimating time the project may be cancelled or the messenger shot. The boss, or customer, doesn’t want to hear the truth. Politics dominates.
Is it always this way? No. There are some sophisticated users of metrics that get excellent results and have integrated good metrics-based planning techniques into their business processes. They get answers that can be used effectively to intelligently negotiate with clients and customers to obtain realistic expectations. Plans are generated that can be worked successfully. Over the span of a few projects confidence in metrics-based techniques builds. Trust increases between developer and customer. Teamwork grows. Process productivity improves faster than it does for the non-believers. But it is hard work that takes dedication and perseverance. Management has to support it continuously through the bad times as well as the good.
So what do I see for the future? Improvement! Our mission as people working in the field is to accelerate the process, integrate metrics into the process and overcome fear of measurement by showing the very strong positive benefits that flow from using our historical data effectively to educate the practitioners, build ever better algorithms and show the real payoff when this is done. Perseverance is critical because it won’t happen fast. As Fred Brooks said, “There is no Silver Bullet.” I think improvement will continue to happen even as software development continues to get more complex. Software metrics processes will become an engineering discipline better understood by customers, practitioners and management through much better communication built around facts rather than myths."
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Larry Putnam, Sr., a renowned authority and a leading expert in the software estimation and management field, is the president of Quantitative Software Management, a software management consulting firm. Larry was the first recipient of "Freiman" award for sustained superior performance in parametric estimation covering a ten-year period. He has over 27 years of experience as a software management consultant and has worked on over 400 client engagements. Considered to be among the top problem solvers in the software estimation and measurement field, Mr. Putnam has authored 4 books and hundreds of articles. He is sought internationally as a speaker and management consultant. He holds a BS from the United States Military Academy, a MS degree in Physics from the Naval Postgraduate School. He is a member of Sigma Xi, ACM, IEEE and IEEE Computer Society. |
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Robert L. Galen
Principal Consultant,
RGalen Consulting Group, L.L.C. |
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| Adaptability in Estimation |
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"These are very exciting times in software development. The open source community is healthily disrupting our tools & techniques, with plug-ins are coming on line that support all types of software development methods, including project management & estimation.
In addition, the Agile Methods are becoming more mainstream in their adoption with the techniques having impact inside and outside of the methods themselves. They’ve led to the realization that it’s no longer acceptable to work slowly or uncollaboratively. Nor is it acceptable to continue using techniques that are ineffective from a bottom-line, project success perspective.
Globalization has also become commonplace, which has placed an increasing burden on distributed estimation techniques that accommodate the complexities of distributed development and teams.
The key point is that our methods are continuously changing. However, in our fervor to adapt and improve, we need to be careful that we don’t throw out our tried and true techniques that continue to work for us. In fact, adaptation towards methods that are working seems to be an imperative across all domains, methods, and projects.
To that end, we need to continue to sharpen our ability to successfully estimate an ever increasingly complex mix of software projects that are more often implemented globally. Our businesses need reliability in our cost, time and scope forecasting in order to effectively compete. But even more importantly, we owe our project teams the capability of creating realistic and feasible plans that don’t generate error rates, increase risk and drive up attrition. You see, our internal human capital continues to be our most valuable commodity and competitive advantage.
At the nexus of these events is SEC 2007. My hope is that practitioners will gather and share pragmatic and fresh approaches that support our continued improvement in the estimation space—approaches that blend the best of our traditional techniques with enough relevant adaptation to truly keep our estimation body of knowledge growing and innovating. We also need to be open minded to the new approaches because what might seem unworkable in some contexts might be perfect for others. So let’s gather, consider context, adapt, and learn at SEC 2007 – leading towards another round of advancement in the practice of Software Estimation. Enjoy!" |
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Bob Galen is a Principal Consultant of RGalen Consulting Group, L.L.C., based in Cary, North Carolina. Bob has held director, manager and contributor level positions in both software development and quality assurance organizations. He has nearly 25 years of experience working in a wide variety of domains, from hard real-time systems to web based information systems, at companies including Bayer, Bell & Howell Mail Processing, EMC, Lucent, Unisys and Thomson.
Since 2001, RGCG has provided consulting and training services targeted toward the softer side of software project challenges and improving team skills to deliver great products.
Bob is an active member of ACM, ASQ, IEEE/CS, PMI, QAI and SPIN. He regularly speaks at international conferences (STAR, Software Development, PSQT/PSTT, Better Software, and QAI) and to local North Carolina organizations on topics related to software development, project management, software testing and team leadership.
He is a certified Scrum Master and a member of the Agile Alliance. In 2005 he published the book Software Endgames – Eliminating Defects, Controlling Change and the Countdown to On-Time Delivery with Dorset House. The books’ focus is how to successfully finish your software projects. |
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Charles Symons
Creator of the Mark II Function Point and Founder, COSMIC |
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"The production of software is being transformed from a craft where
experience is key, to a set of industrial processes whose effectiveness and
efficiency can be measured and managed.
It follows that this transformation will only be successful when we can
reliably estimate and measure the amount and quality of our software
product, and the cost, risk and duration of our activities.
To assist the transformation, our industry must develop and learn to value a
new type of professional, the software equivalent of the quantity surveyor
in the construction industry.
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I wish you all a successful SEC 2007 Colloquium." |
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Charles Symons is the Creator of the Mark II Function Point and Founder, COSMIC and has 45 years experience in the use of computers for business and scientific purposes, in both public and private sectors, in all the major disciplines of the Information Systems function.He is currently joint project leader of COSMIC, the Common Software Measurement International Consortium. COSMIC - an informal grouping of software metrics experts - developed a method of software functional size measurement, applicable to business, real-time and infrastructure software.
COSMIC-FFP is the first such new generation method to become an International Standard (ISO/IEC 19761:2003). Before leading the development of COSMIC-FFP, Charles invented the Mk II Function Point Analysis technique for sizing software requirements, which became the UK Government mandated method for software sizing and estimating. Our interview between Charles Symons and Michael Milutis, Executive Director of the IT Metrics and Productivity Institute, was conducted in June of 2006.
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Daniel D. Galorath
President and Founder, Galorath Incorporated |
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"Problematic software projects cost organizations billions annually in cash, credibility, and lost business. Yet for many, scheduling and budgeting are little more than exercises in wishful thinking. Unfortunate. Because accurate estimates can be achieved by reducing dependence on inconsistent, manual processes; scarce, over–committed personnel; and unsubstantiated assumptions and opinions.
Implementing best practices and tools for estimation, analysis, planning, and control can ensure that software projects are consistently completed as proposed, and can help position companies to lead in their respective fields. The truth is that the software projects can be managed and controlled, and processes improved over time as industry best practices and specialized toolsets are applied to your specific organizational issues and opportunities.
That’s why we’re all here. To share what we know, learn what we don’t, and bring back what’s needed to ensure our projects have the best chances for success from the start. Welcome!" |
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Daniel D. Galorath, President and Founder with over 30 years in the industry is a recognized expert in software estimation and sizing.He has been solving a variety of management, costing, systems, and software problems and has performed all aspects of software development and management. His company, Galorath Incorporated, has developed tools, methods, and training for software cost, schedule, risk analysis, and management decision support, including the industry standard SEER-SEM™ software evaluation model. Dan Galorath holds a BA and MBA, both from Cal State.
Most recently, he was named winner of the 2001 International Society of Parametric Analysts (ISPA) Freiman Award. awarded to individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the theoretical or applied aspects of parametric modeling. Among his published works are papers encompassing software cost modeling, testing theory, software life cycle error prediction and reduction, and software and systems requirements definition.
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